Signal Triggers for First Time in 15 Years Previous Instances Coincided with Recessions

The U.S. labor market has significantly deteriorated over the past year, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 93,000 jobs from May 2025 to December 2025, averaging just 11,625 new jobs monthly. This marks a stark decline from previous months of robust job growth. Additionally, there have been negative month-over-month changes in three out of the last seven months, indicating near-stagnation in employment.

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