What is a 'modest recession' and why might Ontario be facing one?

Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office (FAO) predicts a “modest recession” in 2025 if U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles remain, forecasting real GDP growth to drop to 0.6% compared to 1.7% without those tariffs. FAO Chief Economist Paul Lewis explains that a modest recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and while Ontario’s economy represents a significant portion of Canada’s, its recession may not align with national trends. The report emphasizes that U.S. tariffs are detrimental, as they heavily impact Ontario’s export-driven economy, which relies on the U.S. for a substantial portion of its trade.

Full Article