Iran has been actively working to control militias in Iraq and Syria in response to recent U.S. airstrikes following the killing of three U.S. Army reservists. Initially, there were concerns about escalating violence in the Middle East, but since the U.S. strikes on Feb. 2, there have been no attacks on American bases in Iraq and only two minor ones in Syria.
Prior to this, the U.S. military reported at least 170 attacks on American troops in a span of four months. The current relative calm indicates that both Iran and the militias have made decisions that suggest Iran has some level of control over them.
The Biden administration has warned Iran about accountability for actions by proxy forces but has not directly attacked Iran. According to Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., the recent U.S. response may be having an effect as there have been no recent attacks by the militias.
Iran has been coordinating with various militant groups in the region under the banner of the Axis of Resistance, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Iraq and Syria. General Qassim Suleimani kept the militias in check, but his successor, General Esmail Ghaani, has taken a more hands-off approach.
After the killing of the three American soldiers, Iran began efforts to rein in the militias to avoid further conflict with the U.S. General Ghaani held meetings with militia representatives to urge a pause in attacks on American bases, with influential figures in Iraq also playing a role in persuading the militias to comply.
The outcome of these discussions was a strategy for Iraqi militias to stop attacks on American bases in Iraq and for militia groups in Syria to reduce their attacks to avoid casualties. Despite this, groups targeting Israel in Lebanon and Yemen continue their activities.
While the U.S. has refrained from further strikes to avoid escalating hostilities, Iran’s overall policy remains focused on supporting proxy groups against Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen continue their activities, with potential for increased attacks if Israel targets the city of Rafah in Gaza.
The situation remains fragile, with ongoing dynamics in the region posing challenges for both the U.S. and Iran.
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