On February 28, 2026, Iran initiated Operation “True Promise-4,” launching a significant wave of ballistic missiles and drones into Israeli airspace. This operation was a direct retaliation against recent US and Israeli strikes on Iranian territory. Iran utilized its advanced ballistic missile arsenal, including solid-fuel Fateh missiles and hypersonic-adjacent Fattah-1 variants, firing over 100 missiles in each wave to overwhelm Israel’s multi-layered air defense systems, such as the Iron Dome and Arrow. Analysts noted that Israel expended around 81% of its Arrow interceptors during the conflict, highlighting the limitations of its defenses against such saturation attacks. Although Iran did not achieve a military victory, its strategy demonstrated that a nation under sanctions could inflict substantial attritional pressure on technologically superior forces, raising concerns about the sustainability of Western military strategies in future conflicts.
Why It Matters
The conflict emphasizes significant shifts in military strategy, particularly regarding the effectiveness of advanced air defense systems against overwhelming missile saturation. Historically, the US and Western powers have relied on technological superiority, often assuming that future conflicts would be quick and precise. However, the extensive use of interceptors during this conflict has revealed vulnerabilities in Western military stockpiles and raised alarms about preparedness for simultaneous engagements, such as a potential conflict in Taiwan. The depletion of missile inventories during the war against Iran has prompted reevaluations of military readiness and resource allocation, particularly in light of increasing missile capabilities from adversaries like China.
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