Stock Markets Exhibit Rare Behavior Last Seen Three Times Since 1948

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has reported a contraction in the manufacturing sector for the past nine months, coinciding with the S&P 500 reaching all-time highs. This unique occurrence has only happened three times before: in 2023-2024, 1995-1996, and 1984-1985. Despite these trends, the manufacturing sector’s shrinking size—now less than 10% of the economy—suggests limited overall impact. This scenario may present investment opportunities.

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