The UK private primary school sector has experienced a pupil decline of 3.5% from January 2024 to January 2025, double that of secondary schools’ 1.7% drop, attributed to the recent 20% VAT on school fees. Experts indicate that rising costs are prompting parents to prioritize secondary education, often opting for state primaries initially, as the overall trend reflects declining fertility rates. The Independent Schools Council noted that the impact of the VAT policy may take years to fully manifest, despite the Treasury asserting that private pupil numbers have remained stable over 25 years.
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