When it comes to predicting China’s future, there are certain trend lines that can offer some insight, despite the inherent uncertainties.
These trends revolve around what Neil Thomas from the Asia Society Policy Institute has identified as Xi Jinping’s three key “balancing acts”: managing economic growth alongside security concerns, navigating diplomatic tensions with the United States while avoiding economic disengagement from the West, and handling competition within elite political factions.
Xi’s approach to these balancing acts has led to short-term successes, but it’s possible that these achievements have merely postponed underlying policy challenges.
For example, Xi’s control over elite politics seems solid, given his strategic moves during the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. However, this consolidation of power could potentially sow seeds of rivalry among his loyalists vying for influence in a post-Xi era.
Xi’s efforts to balance security and economic growth are also facing conflicting trends. While emphasizing political security and national rejuvenation, he is also prioritizing economic development with a focus on domestic innovation and reducing dependence on imports.
Xi’s techno-nationalist approach to economic challenges and strategic competition with the United States carries risks, such as financial strain and potential setbacks in global technological integration.
In terms of international relations, China aims to reshape the global order by promoting initiatives that challenge the current U.S.-led system. These initiatives seek to highlight China’s alternative models for development, security, and civilization dialogue.
While these initiatives may resonate with some countries skeptical of the existing order, they could strain relations with traditional U.S. allies like the EU, Japan, and Australia.
In pursuing these balancing acts, Xi may be prioritizing short-term gains over long-term stability, potentially heightening risks for China’s future.
