Recent polls show that Hungary’s governing party is facing a drop in support ahead of June’s European elections, following a scandal involving a presidential pardon. Despite this decline, opposition parties may not be able to capitalize on the situation.
In February, an independent media report revealed that former president Katalin Novák had granted a legal pardon to Endre K., a former deputy director of a state orphanage who was jailed for covering up sexual abuse.
This report sparked widespread outrage and led to mass protests, resulting in the resignations of both Novák and former justice minister Judit Varga from politics.
Although prime minister Viktor Orbán’s position remains secure, his party’s popularity has taken a hit.
A poll by Republikon found that up to 325,000 voters have abandoned Fidesz in just one month.
The party lost around two percent of the general population and six percent of their own voters, marking a record low since their significant victory in the 2022 national election, according to a liberal think tank.
By late February 2024, only 26 percent of the voting-age population supported Fidesz, compared to higher figures in previous months.
Another poll revealed that one-in-ten Fidesz voters are disappointed in the party, and over half of the population desires a change in government.
Even a pro-governmental think tank Nézőpont noted a decrease in the party’s popularity.
Despite this decline, political analyst Zsuzsanna Végh believes that Fidesz will still secure a significant number of mandates in the upcoming European elections.
Challenges ahead for EP elections
With the European Parliament elections approaching in June, Fidesz aims to present a united front as Hungary prepares to assume the EU Council presidency in July, despite facing criticism from Brussels and other member states.
Recent tensions with the EU over issues such as the rule of law and aid to Ukraine have further strained relations.
US ambassador to Hungary David Pressman criticized Orbán for jeopardizing relationships with the US and the EU, urging a more cooperative approach.
Despite these challenges, Fidesz plans to project strength and success at the European elections, aiming to maintain or even improve upon their previous results.
While Fidesz holds a significant majority in the Hungarian parliament, their performance in the European elections remains to be seen.
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Fidesz is expected to perform well in the European elections, given their disciplined voter base, although a decrease in popularity could impact their vote share.
With a municipal vote coinciding with the European elections, turnout is expected to be higher than in previous elections, potentially influencing the outcome.
Uncertainty in the opposition
While Fidesz may lose some support following the scandal, it remains unclear how much the opposition parties will benefit.
The strongest opposition party, DK, has experienced a slight decline in support, while other parties like Momentum and Mi Hazánk have maintained their positions.
A new party led by Péter Magyar, who exposed high-level corruption within Fidesz, has also emerged, adding another dimension to the political landscape.
Protests following the scandal have drawn attention to dissatisfaction with the current government, but it remains to be seen how this will translate into votes.
The upcoming European elections will provide a crucial test for both Fidesz and the opposition parties in Hungary.
