In a troubling development for President Joe Biden’s chances of reelection, recent polling released on Saturday indicates that he is losing a significant portion of his 2020 supporters to former President Donald Trump.
Despite the ongoing primaries and caucuses extending into June, Trump and Biden are widely predicted to secure their party’s nominations for the 2024 presidential race, just as they did in 2020. However, both candidates continue to face low approval ratings, with many polls showing that a majority of Americans do not want either of them to run.
Biden, 81, has been facing increasing concerns about his age and mental acuity, along with criticism for his handling of the economy and the surge of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border. Trump, 77, also faces scrutiny over his age and fitness for office, particularly as he deals with 91 criminal charges amid legal challenges. Despite this, the former president maintains his innocence.
Recent surveys have consistently shown Trump leading Biden, including in pivotal swing states where the election outcome is expected to be determined. Newsweek reached out to both the Trump and Biden campaigns via email for their comments.
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Fresh polling data from The New York Times and Siena College underscores Biden’s challenges, revealing that 10 percent of his 2020 supporters intend to switch their allegiance to Trump in the upcoming election. In contrast, less than 0.5 percent of Trump’s previous backers plan to support Biden.
The survey indicates that Trump retains the backing of 97 percent of his 2020 supporters, while Biden only holds the support of 83 percent of his former voters. Overall, the data shows Trump leading Biden by 5 points, with 48 percent favoring the Republican former president compared to 43 percent for the Democratic incumbent.
Conducted from February 25 to 28, the survey included 823 respondents with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
The current RealClearPolitics average of national polls, incorporating the Times/Siena data, shows Biden trailing Trump by approximately 2.3 percent. Biden garners an average of 45 percent support, while his Republican counterpart secures 47.3 percent.
Furthermore, polling conducted earlier this year in swing states predominantly shows Trump ahead of Biden. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey from January 16 to 22 reveals that Biden trails Trump by three to 10 points in states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The poll encompassed 4,956 registered voters across these seven states.
Supporters of Biden argue that despite the data, voters will ultimately choose him over Trump and the Republicans’ “extreme” agenda. They point to Democratic victories in recent elections, emphasizing issues like abortion access and concerns about the MAGA platform.
On the other hand, Republicans contend that voters will reject Biden, despite Trump’s legal troubles, viewing the current president as weak on economic and foreign policy matters. They also criticize Biden’s border policies and assert that the charges against Trump are politically motivated.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
