In response to the assassination of Hizbollah’s leader, Israel has increased its military strikes in Lebanon and is preparing for a risky ground operation. Israeli forces have deployed equipment and combat divisions to the north and have conducted small-scale raids in preparation for a broader ground operation. The objective is to push Hizbollah forces north of Lebanon’s Litani river and degrade their firepower. While there are risks involved, Israel is aiming to gain leverage in negotiations and prevent further attacks from Hizbollah. However, a ground operation could lead to prolonged combat and a potential confrontation with Iran. Netanyahu is cautious about involving Iran and is unlikely to attack their nuclear facilities without US support. In the next few months, the future of the Iran nuclear deal remains uncertain, with decisions dependent on Iran’s actions in various areas, including nuclear activities, Syria, and Iraq. Cartography by Jana Tauschinski and Steven Bernard.
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