The recent barrage of Iranian weapons aimed at Israel over the weekend has escalated the ongoing shadow war between the two countries into a direct confrontation. This has raised concerns that the previous pattern of carefully measured exchanges of attacks has shifted to a more overt, violent, and risky phase.
However, as of Monday, Israel had not yet retaliated to the Iranian assault. Instead of gearing up for a potential showdown with their long-standing rival, the Israeli government has indicated a return to normalcy by easing restrictions on large gatherings and reopening schools.
Some right-wing Israeli politicians are disappointed by the lack of immediate response and advocate for a strong retaliatory action to maintain deterrence. On the other hand, more centrist officials suggest patience before reacting and leveraging the support received from allies and regional actors who are critical of Israel’s actions in Gaza.
Any decisive Israeli response runs the risk of upsetting President Biden, who has urged Israel to de-escalate and whose military backing would be crucial in a major conflict. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must weigh the benefits of retaliation against the potential consequences of further displeasing the president and the human and financial costs of engaging in multiple wars simultaneously.
An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, revealed that several options are being considered by the cabinet, ranging from diplomatic approaches to potential immediate strikes. However, no specific details were provided.
The future steps in the conflict remain uncertain.
The manner in which Israel responds could either escalate or de-escalate the likelihood of a regional war and impact its relationships with Arab nations that share animosity towards Iran but have criticized Israel’s actions in Gaza.
It is also plausible that Israel and Iran revert to their established patterns of the shadow war, involving targeted assassinations, proxy attacks, and cyber warfare.
Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official focusing on the Middle East, remarked, “It’s too early to predict. From Israel’s security standpoint, it’s challenging to overlook the aggression. The question remains: How can Israel respond clearly to Iran without escalating the situation into a larger conflict in the Middle East?”
While the future remains uncertain, the events of the past 48 hours have shed new light on the conflict.
