How Badly Did ChatGPT and Copilot Fail to Predict the Winners of the Kentucky Derby?

In 2016, an online “swarm intelligence” platform accurately predicted the top four finishers of the Kentucky Derby, leading to yearly AI predictions for the race. For the 2025 Derby, Microsoft Copilot AI favored the horse “Journalism,” which finished second, while the actual winner was “Sovereignty.” Despite some correct placements, Copilot’s predictions for third through seventh were significantly off, demonstrating the challenges AI faces in accurately forecasting horse race outcomes.

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