The “The State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report,” recently published by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, has attracted significant attention for its notable findings. One key highlight is China’s rise over the United States as the preferred alignment choice in Southeast Asia amid ongoing China-U.S. rivalry. However, a closer look at various indicators reveals nuances.
Not surprisingly, China is still perceived as the most influential economic and politico-strategic force in the region, chosen by 59.5% and 43.9% of respondents, respectively. Yet, there have been gains by the United States, selected as the most influential economic power by 14.3% of respondents, up from 10.5% last year, and by ASEAN, surpassing the U.S. in political and strategic influence.
In terms of political and strategic influence, the U.S. has declined compared to China. This year, 25.8% of respondents saw the U.S. as the most influential political and strategic power, down from 31.9% in 2023, while China’s score increased from 41.5% to 43.9%. ASEAN has seen a significant rise in political and strategic influence, growing from 13.1% to 20.0%, surpassing even China.
Legitimacy is not just about power and influence but also trust. Japan is viewed as the most trustworthy major power by 58.9% of participants, followed by the U.S. (42.4%) and the EU (41.5%). Concerns about China’s strength in the military and economy have led to lower trust in its government by only 24.8% of respondents.
While respondents see China’s political and economic influence positively, there are concerns about its military and economic might threatening national interests and sovereignty. Japan is considered trustworthy for upholding international law, while the EU is similarly viewed. However, fewer respondents would choose the EU as a third partner to hedge against China and the U.S.
The U.S. is trusted for shaping the world order, but doubts remain about its dependability due to domestic issues and policy inconsistencies in Southeast Asia. The survey suggests that any positive shift towards China over the U.S. is likely due to dissatisfaction with U.S. policies rather than a belief in China as a superior alternative.
Geopolitical issues like the Israel-Hamas conflict and actions in the South China Sea have impacted confidence in the U.S. as a strategic partner, particularly among Islamic countries in ASEAN. The China-U.S. competition has polarized ASEAN members, with differing views on alignment.
About 77.0% of respondents see ASEAN as becoming less effective, prompting calls for increased resilience and unity to withstand pressures from major powers. Despite challenges, there is optimism in ASEAN’s growing favorable opinions and influence.
The ongoing contest between the U.S. and China in Southeast Asia underscores the need for ASEAN unity to navigate regional challenges. The survey offers insights into shifting perceptions towards China and the U.S., influenced by changing geopolitical conditions.
While the survey hints at evolving perceptions, particularly towards China and the U.S., only future surveys will reveal the true shift. Global events’ dynamic nature suggests that perceptions may continue to change, guided by geopolitical shifts.
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