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Pollster Kos Samaras predicts that the outcome of the 2025 federal election will be determined by key seats in NSW and Victoria, where Labor must retain at least 76 of their 78 seats to secure a majority government, while the Coalition needs to win 21 additional seats to govern outright. Key battlegrounds include electorates in NSW like Robertson, Gilmore, and Patterson, as well as in Victoria such as Corangamite and Dunkley. The threat of independent campaigns, including those by Teal candidates and Muslim Votes Matter, could also impact the election outcome.
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