The upcoming flu season is expected to be as severe as or worse than 2023, with a one-in-three chance of catching a cold or the flu.
Current flu cases have doubled compared to last year, but it’s uncertain if they are peaking early or heading towards record levels, according to an epidemiologist.
In 2023, influenza affected over 300,000 Australians as the world transitioned into a post-COVID era.
Codral Cold & Flu, in collaboration with health consulting firm IQVIA, used cold and flu reports, medicine sales data, weather forecasts, and vaccine rates to model the flu season.
Dr. Sashi Anantham, the principal, noted that this year’s flu season is starting earlier than usual, suggesting a potential severity similar to or greater than 2023.
Flu cases spiked in 2023 after the pandemic lockdowns, hygiene, and social distancing measures were lifted. NCA NewsWire / David Geraghty
Credit: News Corp Australia
According to the modeling, Newcastle and Liverpool in NSW, and Southport in Queensland are expected to be the hardest hit areas.
Dr. Anantham reassured that while the flu season may bring inconveniences like time off work and kids staying home, it shouldn’t be a major concern if one is prepared to handle such situations.
Epidemiologists recommend that young, elderly, and pregnant individuals get vaccinated against the flu this season. NCA NewsWire / David Crosling
Credit: News Corp Australia
Professor Adrian Esterman, a biostatistician at the University of South Australia, mentioned the challenges in tracking and predicting colds due to limited data, as most people do not seek medical help for a common cold.
While influenza cases are currently high and double compared to last year, predicting the overall numbers for the flu season remains difficult, Esterman added.
Influenza cases are already on the rise. NCA NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw
Credit: News Corp Australia
Retail data, like the one used in the modeling, serves as a reasonable indicator of the severity of the cold and flu season, but it does not specify the exact illnesses individuals may have, Esterman pointed out.
Several states introduced widespread free flu vaccine programs in 2022 and 2023. NCA NewsWire / Ian Currie
Credit: News Corp Australia
It is recommended that young children, the elderly, and pregnant individuals receive the flu vaccine, Esterman emphasized.
The Australian Sentinel Practices Research Network is a valuable source of data for influenza-like illnesses, providing fortnightly reports from GPs and registered nurses.
Although the latest data only goes up to February 1, the ASPREN spokeswoman did not respond to requests for the most recent report.
The nation’s cold & flu capitals:
1. Newcastle, NSW
2. Liverpool, NSW
3. Southport, QLD
4. Blacktown, NSW
5. Hornsby, NSW
6. Hurstville, NSW
7. Hillarys, WA
8. Tamworth, NSW
9. Orange, NSW
10. Fremantle, WA
Areas forecast for most cold and flu symptoms:
NSW: Newcastle, Liverpool, Blacktown
Queensland: Southport, Cairns, Hervey Bay
South Australia: Clovelly Park, Torrensville, Seaford
Tasmania: Launceston, Lindisfarne, Sandy Bay
Victoria: Warrnambool, Baxter, Prahran
Western Australia: Hillarys, Fremantle, Mirrabooka
