China is actively promoting a plan to revitalize its economy and counter the effects of a long-standing housing bubble, starting from the highest levels of government.
The initiative, championed by Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, is branded as “new, quality productive forces.” The strategy involves boosting innovation and growth through significant investments in manufacturing, especially in high-tech and clean energy sectors, along with substantial spending on research and development. However, there is little clarity on how the government intends to encourage Chinese households to increase their spending after a prolonged slowdown.
Premier Li Qiang outlined the plan at the China Development Forum, an annual event where the country’s economic roadmap is traditionally shared with global corporate leaders.
The China Development Forum, inaugurated in 2000, serves as a platform to elucidate the premier’s economic vision presented on March 5 each year.
This year, there were deviations from the usual format of the forum, with the premier’s interactive session with chief executives being canceled without explanation. This led to some executives leaving early, missing out on the event’s scheduled programming.
The forum also omitted the customary open discussion of economic policies by Chinese business leaders and ministers prior to the official commencement.
Evan Greenberg, chairman of the Chubb Group, co-hosted the forum alongside prominent figures like Tim Cook from Apple and Mike Henry from BHP. Premier Li emphasized the need for enhanced manufacturing, services, and consumption, urging households to upgrade their vehicles and appliances.
The focus on manufacturing comes as China grapples with declining consumer spending due to falling property prices, impacting household wealth significantly. The premier briefly touched upon real estate and local government debt concerns, highlighting the resilience of China’s economy amidst risks.
Mr. Li proposed granting legal residency to over 250 million rural migrants in cities to access better social benefits. However, the feasibility of providing these benefits amidst financial constraints remains unclear.
The “new, quality productive forces” mantra aims to alleviate fears of growth constraints due to foreign tech restrictions. Chinese officials stress the significant role of manufacturing in the economy, surpassing that of the United States by a considerable margin.
China’s trade partners express concerns about increased manufacturing leading to heightened exports, with the EU considering tariffs on Chinese electric cars. Companies reliant on commodity sales to China are monitoring the shift towards high-tech manufacturing closely.
While promises to stabilize the housing market have been made, details on implementation are scarce. Local governments are suggested to provide more public housing, but financing remains a challenge amid existing debt burdens.
Wang Dan, a prominent economist, advocates for direct cash transfers to boost consumer spending in China. The current focus is on enhancing supply and product quality rather than immediate demand concerns.
Liu Sushe, from the National Development and Reform Commission, highlights the positive growth momentum in investment in new driving forces, signaling a shift towards a more robust economic landscape.
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