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The natural focus of a rebuild falls on finding the next era-defining superstar.
Drafting and developing a new, foundational core player (or two) is practically the mission statement.
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While drafting the next Johnny Gaudreau or Jarome Iginla is the primary objective, it isn’t the only item on Craig Conroy’s to-do list.
The modern NHL landscape is littered with failed rebuilds — clubs languishing outside of the playoff picture for years despite multiple high draft picks. It’s clear that searching for superstars is a necessary, but not sufficient means to build a contender.
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Rebuilds aren’t just about finding the next core. They’re also about looking for good-value players who can either fill out the roster or be flipped for more futures.
The game Calgary’s front office is playing now is one of “asset accrual.” Top-10 draft picks are the golden coins of the realm, but there are other methods the Flames GM can use to go from deficit to surplus.
One of these tactics is to make small “no downside” bets on under-appreciated players and allow them to improve their stock. The good news is that Conroy already seems to be enacting this strategy.
In a recent home game against the Los Angeles Kings, the Flames iced a roster featuring three waiver-wire pickups (Joel Hanley, Braden Pachal and AJ Greer), two trade “throw-ins” (Andrei Kuzmenko, Daniil Miromanov) and four rookies (Dustin Wolf, Matt Coronato, Connor Zary, Martin Pospisil).
This is the very picture of a rebuilding squad, of course, and a symptom of the circumstances the team is currently in.
However, this depth chart also represents a shift in mindset for the club.
While in contention mode, the Flames would stack their roster with known commodities, established players the coaches or GM were familiar with. They were almost always traded for or signed in the off-season. Any rookie or youngster looking for a roster spot would have to fight through a forest of reputational veterans to stick.
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When teams are trying to win, NHL decision-makers become relatively conservative, even at the margins. Only clear upgrades, be it a kid or a waiver-wire pickup, will get ice time, and even then they have to prove their worth with every game, every shift. Otherwise, the tie goes to the incumbent.
Better the Devil you know when there is a lot on the line.
As the executive priority shifts from present wins to future wins, the perception of the downside risk of skating relatively unknown commodities also shifts. With less pressure to compete now, the organization is free to experiment on guys who may not have the resumes or the experience that would qualify them for a Darryl Sutter-coached team desperately trying to make the playoffs and win a round.
Instead, Ryan Huska and Craig Conroy can search for undiscovered upside.
Often these experiments yield nothing more than a 13th forward or a third-pairing defender. But sometimes they uncover an everyday NHLer or the rare superstar in Martin St.
Louis or Mark Giordano.
Already this season the club has uncovered value across their portfolio of kids and misfit toys. Zary was one of the organization’s top prospects, but his arrival as a legitimate NHLer happened ahead of schedule. Even more surprising is the emergence of Pospisil, a player who has hung around the middle of most Calgary prospect rankings.
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Neither guy was on the radar to skate meaningful minutes on the parent squad this year. Now both are NHL staples.
In addition, all of Pachal, Hanley and Greer have proven more capable than their waiver-wire status would suggest. Pachal, in particular, has seemingly caught on in Calgary, already appearing in a career-high 24 games for the Flames this season and appearing increasingly more comfortable with every game.
Previously buried on a deeper Vegas Golden Knights squad, the undrafted 24-year-old has some of the best shot, chance and goal ratios on the team over the last two months.
Finally, Miromanov and Kuzmenko have provided flashes of added value during their time here, with the former becoming a competent middle rotation and power-play option in the absence of Noah Hanifin.
Kuzmenko, a salary cap dump from Vancouver, has so far outscored his trade counterpart Elias Lindholm and has been the most dynamic offensive threat for the club in several of their past few outings.
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Obviously, the team hasn’t (yet) discovered a secret superstar lurking on the edge of their roster or the fringes of the NHL. But Conroy’s experience this season illustrates that it is possible to opportunistically supplement an NHL depth chart with some kids and the waiver-wire pickups — a valuable lesson in its own right.
In addition, each successful no-downside bet, like converting an AHL tweener into an everyday NHLer, marginally improves the club’s asset base.
Advancing the organization’s future outcomes will mostly come from drafting high, drafting often, and carefully developing their resultant blue-chip prospects.
Nevertheless, Conroy can also incrementally improve his long-term chances of success by making small bets on the kind of players contending teams often overlook or ignore.
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