Amid unprecedented protests in Iran, the notion that U.S. air power could precipitate regime change misrepresents the Islamic Republic’s resilience, rooted in coercive cohesion among its overlapping power structures. President Trump faces pressures from neoconservative hawks for military action while balancing his America First base’s aversion to prolonged conflicts. While limited air strikes may serve as punishment, they risk unifying hardliners and escalating tensions without dismantling the regime. A more pragmatic goal for Washington is to moderate Iran’s behavior rather than pursue regime change, as military force alone cannot effect lasting change or protect protesters.
