Aalst projections: “Maarten en de Mage” until November 10

President Trump's senior counsellor for trade and manufacturing advocates for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs to address the biased international trade system that has led to a $1tn annual trade deficit for the US, primarily due to the World Trade Organization's "most favoured nation" rule. The US has lost millions of manufacturing jobs since 1979, while facing higher tariffs and non-tariff barriers from major trading partners. Trump's doctrine aims to hold foreign countries accountable by...

Investors and economists believe the ECB is highly likely to cut borrowing costs next week and again in June due to the risk of recession posed by Donald Trump's tariffs, with a 90% chance of a quarter-point cut in interest rates in April. The looming trade war is expected to create significant deflationary pressures in the euro area, leading to multiple rate reductions and potentially necessitating the use of larger stimulus measures such as liquidity...

EU trade commissioner Maros Šefčovič offered the US a zero-tariff deal on cars and industrial goods, including pharmaceutical products and machinery, before the trade war initiated by Donald Trump. This proposal was made in a meeting with US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick on 19 February. The EU remains open to negotiations but will not hesitate to defend itself if necessary. Full Article

The European Union is open to discussing import tariffs with the Trump administration, with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen stating that Brussels is prepared to implement countermeasures if needed. Short-dated yields in the Euro-area dropped to a two-and-a-half-year low amid concerns over the economic impact of US tariffs, prompting a sell-off in stocks and increased speculation of European Central Bank rate cuts. European markets suffered losses as President Trump suggested that tough measures...

Andrew Bailey has been chosen as the next chair of the Financial Stability Board, taking on the role alongside his position as Bank of England governor. The FSB, established in 2009, aims to coordinate policies among global regulators to prevent financial crises, focusing on areas such as crypto assets, hedge funds, and climate change. Bailey, set to start on July 1, will lead efforts to address challenges in the financial system and strengthen international cooperation...

Germany's chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz has expressed concern over the "dramatic" impact of US tariffs on global markets, particularly affecting Germany's international competitiveness. The announcement of 20 per cent tariffs on European exports has led to significant economic challenges, with potential losses of €200bn and a 1.5 percentage point decrease in GDP by 2028. Merz, under pressure to form a government, is facing difficulties in coalition negotiations with the Social Democrats as support for the far-right...