Monday, April 21, 2025

Why Rivian Could Tank Another 50%


Rivian Automotive (RIVN) began 2023 strong but has faced declining momentum, compounded by potential 25% tariffs on imported components like batteries from South Korea and China. Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska maintained an underperform rating with a $6.10 price target, predicting a 20% cut in their 2025 delivery forecast to 37,000 units and negative $2.2 billion EBITDA, raising concerns over achieving profitability milestones tied to a joint venture with Volkswagen and a $6.6 billion DOE loan. Despite these challenges, Rivian’s prospects hinge on successfully launching its R2 model and securing funding to continue operations.

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