As the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East continue, another conflict is brewing in East Asia. In late 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered his military to “thoroughly annihilate” South Korea and the United States if provoked. The saber-rattling continued with Pyongyang firing around 350 artillery shells into a disputed sea in January, followed by a series of missile tests. South Korea’s response has been to promise even stronger retaliation if the North takes aggressive actions. This has been reinforced by Seoul’s deepening military alliance with Washington and Tokyo since the Camp David Summit last August.
The rising tension in the Korean Peninsula has led many experts to speculate on what lies ahead. Some experts argue that the Kim regime has made a strategic decision to wage war, while others warn of a potential nuclear crisis in the region. Amidst all the uncertainties, The Diplomat spoke to Moon Chung-in, former special adviser for diplomacy and national security to President Moon Jae-in, who shared his views on the recent developments.
Kim Jong Un’s aggressive behavior has escalated this year, with multiple missile launches and a shift in policy towards South Korea. Moon Chung-in believes that this shift signifies a defensive move by the Kim regime, treating the South as a separate state. The expert community has been closely analyzing North Korea’s latest policy shifts towards South Korea, including Kim’s declaration of the South as the country’s “principal enemy” and the end of the nation’s reconciliation and reunification policy.
Moon Chung-in also discussed the implications of North Korea’s renewed relationship with Russia, highlighting the potential formation of two opposing tripartite pacts in Northeast Asia. This geopolitical configuration could create a “new continent” of opportunity for the North while posing security and diplomatic challenges for South Korea.
Regarding the issue of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, Moon Chung-in suggested that negotiating with a nuclear-armed North Korea is becoming more widely accepted as a practical approach. He emphasized the importance of finding ways to halt, roll back, and ultimately dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile capabilities, despite the political dilemmas it may pose. Moon also reflected on the missed opportunity for a significant deal at the Hanoi Summit between North Korea and the U.S., highlighting the potential for progress in denuclearization efforts.
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