Analysis: Christopher Luxon’s first trip outside Australasia should be seen as a success. But the real test is whether he can translate his new friendships into a cohesive strategy for Asia, backed by the resources to see it through.
During the Prime Minister’s five days travelling through Singapore, Bangkok and Manila, he reaffirmed old friendships, forged new alliances and set ambitious expectations of his foreign officials and business leaders.
While Luxon was pushing at an open door in this part of the world, it was a house he needed to call on, given the turbulence facing the region.
After a period of New Zealand’s focus elsewhere under Jacinda Ardern’s leadership, then border closures due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Southeast Asia was beginning to ask New Zealand: ‘Where are you?’
The Asean group of nations will no doubt be glad of Luxon’s answer.
The level of intensity the Prime Minister was bringing to the area of foreign affairs – with a key focus on Australia and Asia – was deliberate.
“You want to make sure New Zealand never, ever, loses influence,” he told Newsroom.
“We want to be at the table; we have a lot to offer the world. We stand up for some great values … We never want to be brushed off or not relevant.”
The Prime Minister made it through a punishing schedule over five days by “chunking it down” into three rounds of bilateral meetings, business breakfasts, MOU signings, grand hall lunches, a palace dinner and fireworks display, and a few tourist activities for the sake of social media.
In all three countries, he committed to upgrading existing agreements within the next two years. A timeline that’s had foreign affairs officials taking a deep breath.
In the case of the Philippines, there were separate promises to deepen defence ties and increase interoperability for military training and humanitarian purposes. And in Thailand, came a commitment to triple trade in the next 20 years.
“I wanted to blow the cobwebs off and get our system to understand we’re going to go out in the world and be very externally oriented,” Luxon said.
Now – as a Prime Minister focused on outcomes – he needed to see these promises through.
Asia New Zealand Foundation chief executive Suzannah Jessep said political leaders in the past had made ambitious promises; he wasn’t the first. But not all of them backed up their rhetoric with a solid strategy and systems changes.
Ramping up foreign policy would be difficult at a time when New Zealand’s economy wasn’t growing, there was a cost of living crisis, and the public sector was in regression.
But New Zealand’s re-engagement in the region was timely, Jessep said.
“It’s a much tougher regional context.”
Addressing the major power competition and politically navigating hotspots in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait would take face-to-face, frank discussions with New Zealand’s partners.
“These are not all things you can deal with from the Beehive.”
While the foundation’s research showed Kiwis saw Southeast Asia as increasingly important for their future, the region had not received the recognition it deserved in recent years.
Luxon said he would be prioritising the big six Asean countries: Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. He’d collect the whole set by the end of next year.
He would also visit India this year and China as soon as he could, with his foreign minister already making the trips and his trade minister in China this week. Luxon was also expected to travel to Japan and Korea this year.
The Prime Minister believed he had a good strategy to enhance the Asia relationship, saying all three coalition partners were on the same page.
While his foreign affairs and trade officials were working to deliver on what Luxon had so publicly promised, he had formed a foreign affairs-focused group of senior ministers to work on foreign affairs strategies: Foreign Minister Winston Peters, Defence Minister Judith Collins and Trade Minister Todd McClay.
They’d also put in place the framework for “2+2 meetings” between Australia and New Zealand on a regular basis, which include ministers of foreign affairs, defence, climate and finance.
They were all making use of the Parliamentary recess to get offshore. This week Finance Minister Nicola Willis was meeting with Five Eyes finance counterparts, Trade Minister Todd McClay had been in China, and Education Minister Erica Stanford had just touched down in Singapore.
Professor of political science and international relations at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University Thitinan Pongsudhirak said the previous government responded well to the pandemic but was overwhelmed by it at the same time, nudging New Zealand off course into insularity.
“New Zealand foreign policy projection now appears in better balance and on sounder footing,” Pongsudhirak said.
The dilemma for Southeast Asia was that it needed China for economic growth and required the US for security balancing, he said. In this respect, New Zealand was in a similar situation.
Asean countries had become increasingly divided over key issues, including the US-China competition, Myanmar and the Ukraine conflict.
And while no Asean country wanted to pick sides, as the US-China conflict intensified, the art of hedging had become more untenable, Pongsudhirak said.
“The paradigmatic shift from the prosperity-focused Asia-Pacific to the securities-oriented Indo-Pacific is a daunting challenge for New Zealand. Perhaps no other country feels the downside and detrimental effects of this shift more.”
New Zealand should see Asean as an insurance policy – or buffer –but it was no longer monolith, he said.
“New Zealand should look at Asean not as a cohesive 10-member bloc but an a la carte organisation, whereby the original five Asean founders plus Vietnam matter the most.”
Now, with new leaders in all four countries (including Luxon) it was a good time to refresh.
Luxon said he saw his core role as building the leader-to-leader engagement, so doors would open for New Zealand as a strategic and business partner.
“No-one needs New Zealand,” the Prime Minister told Newsroom.
“We’re 5 million people, small economy, small country. We can get dealt out of the game, and I never want that to happen.”
Luxon said it helped that he genuinely got along well with all three leaders – particularly Philippines President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos.
Luxon and his wife, Amanda, met Marcos and his wife, Liza, during the Asean summit dinner in Melbourne last month. Amanda and Liza hit it off early on, which led to an invitation for Luxon to stay at Marcos’ mansion during his time in Manila. Liza also allowed the New Zealand delegation the use of her mansion for their own event.
Luxon was clearly at ease with all three leaders. He had a familiar way of speaking, and peppered conversations with lighthearted comments. His propensity for a hug, a long handshake, and a back pat were all on full-display during his time in Southeast Asia.
And while his high energy levels were remarked upon by numerous members of the New Zealand delegation, Luxon’s eagerness, constant need for feedback, and ‘never say no to a selfie’ policy, would eventually need to evolve into a more statesman-like presence.
Outgoing Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong showed what a statesman could do when given the opportunity, during Luxon’s trip to Singapore.
Just hours before resigning, Lee’s candid answer when asked for his views on the situation in the Middle East was an impressive display by someone who had been exposed to decades of talking points and knew when and how to stray from the script.
Luxon spoke effusively about his respect for the outgoing Singapore leader, and he would no doubt have been taking notes on Lee’s performance.
