Monday, June 2, 2025
News Wave
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • World
  • USA
  • Business
  • Sports
  • Entertainment
  • Technology
News Wave
  • Home
  • World
  • USA
  • Business
  • Sports
  • Entertainment
  • Technology
No Result
View All Result
News Wave
No Result
View All Result
Home Business

Email ‘Mistake’ on Inflation Data Prompts Questions on What Is Shared

19 March 2024
in Business
0 0
Email ‘Mistake’ on Inflation Data Prompts Questions on What Is Shared
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter


One afternoon in late February, an employee at the Bureau of Labor Statistics sent an email about an obscure detail in the way the government calculates inflation — and set off an unlikely firestorm.

Economists on Wall Street had spent two weeks puzzling over an unexpected jump in housing costs in the Consumer Price Index. Several had contacted the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the numbers, to inquire. Now, an economist inside the bureau thought he had solved the mystery.

In an email addressed to “Super Users,” the economist explained a technical change in the calculation of the housing figures. Then, departing from the bureaucratic language typically used by statistical agencies, he added, “All of you searching for the source of the divergence have found it.”

To the inflation obsessives who received the email — and other forecasters who quickly heard about it — the implication was clear: The pop in housing prices in January might have been not a fluke but rather a result of a shift in methodology that could keep inflation elevated longer than economists and Federal Reserve officials had expected. That could, in turn, make the Fed more cautious about cutting interest rates.

“I nearly fell off my chair when I saw that,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, a forecasting firm.

Huge swaths of Wall Street trade securities are tied to inflation or rates. But the universe of people receiving the email was tiny — about 50 people, the Bureau of Labor Statistics later said.

In the minutes after it came out, analysts at investment banks, hedge funds and other asset managers scrambled to get a copy and to figure out how to trade on it.

“It had an immediate impact — people were asking, what is this information, and how can I get my hands on it?” said Tim Duy, chief economist at SGH Macro Advisors, a consultant for investment firms.

About an hour and a half after the email went out, the Bureau of Labor Statistics sent a follow-up that further confused things. “Please disregard the email below,” it read. “We are currently looking into this data, and we will have additional communication” regarding the housing data “soon.”

For investors and government watchdogs, the episode raised several questions: Was the government sharing sensitive information with a secret list of “super users”? How did people get on that list? And was the shared information accurate?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, in a series of statements, denied that there was a list of “super users” or that the government routinely shared information outside official channels. Rather, a spokeswoman said, the economist who sent the email — a longtime but relatively low-ranking employee in the bureau’s consumer price division — had acted on his own after getting several inquiries about the topic. That, she added, was a “mistake.”

But when every inflation data point is under a microscope, even subtle details can move markets. That means that when a statistical agency interacts with private-sector economists and analysts — long a routine practice — it risks giving them a leg up in forecasting and betting.

“It has put the B.L.S. in a very awkward position because everyone is very, very sensitive these days about what the Fed is going to do,” said Maurine Haver, president of Haver Analytics, an economic data provider.

Emily Liddel, an associate commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, said the agency tries to be responsive to users and to answer technical questions.

“We allow employees to speak directly with interested parties in order to match up the experts with the people who are trying to understand the data,” she said.

The email controversy, Ms. Liddel said, “caused no small amount of embarrassment” and will lead to more training and a review of policies on information disclosure.

“There are bureauwide efforts to re-emphasize the importance of making sure that everyone has equitable access to the data,” she said.

It is unclear how the February emails affected markets, in part because traders got the news at different times as the messages were forwarded. The two-year Treasury yield, which is very responsive to Fed expectations, rose in the hours after the email and reversed not long after the follow-up — moves that would have made sense in response to the emails but did not perfectly line up with them in timing.

Adding to the confusion: The initial email was, if not wrong, at least misleading.

Responding to the email episode, the Bureau of Labor Statistics held an online seminar explaining how it calculates housing inflation and the effect of methodological changes. According to that presentation, the original email was right about the technical change, which caused single-family homes to count more in inflation calculations in January than in December.

But while the email implied that the tweak was a major reason for the unexpectedly hot inflation reading, the online presentation showed that the effect was minimal. Sure enough, when the bureau released inflation data for February, it showed that the jump in house prices had moderated. The January data was mostly a fluke after all.



Source link

Tags: DataEmailInflationmistakePromptsquestionsShared
Previous Post

How Anti-Immigrant Anger Has Divided a Small Irish Town

Next Post

Senegal’s 2024 Election: What to Know

Related Posts

Why IonQ Stock Soared 47% in May
Business

Why IonQ Stock Soared 47% in May

by My News Wave
2 June 2025
0

Shares of IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), a quantum computing developer, saw a significant rise of 47% last month, driven by positive coverage in Barron's that positioned the company as "the Nvidia of quantum computing." The stock's increase coincided with earnings that met expectations, benefiting from a market shift away from concerns about a trade war and economic downturn. However, after the initial surge following the May 22 Barron's report, IonQ's shares experienced a decline as enthusiasm...

Read more
Does Alex Karp Think Palantir Stock Is Overvalued?
Business

Does Alex Karp Think Palantir Stock Is Overvalued?

by My News Wave
2 June 2025
0

Palantir's management has the opportunity to buy back over $900 million of its own stock but has not yet taken advantage of this option. The stock prices referenced are from the afternoon of May 29, 2025, and the video discussing this matter was published on May 31, 2025. This situation raises questions about the company's confidence in its stock value and future market performance. Full Article

Read more
United Airlines tries to lure customers back to Newark with lower prices as a shuttered runway reopens
Business

United Airlines tries to lure customers back to Newark with lower prices as a shuttered runway reopens

by My News Wave
2 June 2025
0

Runway Reopening at Newark Liberty International AirportNewark Liberty International Airport will reopen a runway on Monday that had been under construction, which contributed to the airport's recent operational chaos. This move comes as United Airlines (UAL) aims to regain the trust of customers who have begun avoiding the troubled airport. The reopening of the runway is a strategic step to improve the airport's functionality and enhance passenger experience. Full Article

Read more
The 2 Smartest Beaten-Down Biotech Stocks to Buy on the Dip
Business

The 2 Smartest Beaten-Down Biotech Stocks to Buy on the Dip

by My News Wave
2 June 2025
0

Despite the volatility in broader equities this year, investing in stocks remains wise, as holding shares of leading companies for five years often yields superior returns. In the biotech sector, two companies to consider are CRISPR Therapeutics (NASDAQ: CRSP) and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN), both of which have experienced significant share declines over the past year but may offer substantial upside for patient investors. This highlights the importance of long-term investment strategies, even during uncertain...

Read more
3 Tech Stocks You Can Buy and Hold for the Next Decade
Business

3 Tech Stocks You Can Buy and Hold for the Next Decade

by My News Wave
2 June 2025
0

The tech sector has historically benefited patient investors, with companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon providing substantial returns. Currently, three additional resilient blue-chip tech stocks—Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), and Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW)—are highlighted as potential market-beaters for long-term investors who adopt a buy-and-hold strategy. These companies may yield impressive gains for those willing to overlook short-term market fluctuations and focus on a decade-long investment horizon. Full Article

Read more
Is Nvidia a Buy?
Business

Is Nvidia a Buy?

by My News Wave
1 June 2025
0

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported a record-breaking quarter, with $44.1 billion in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, marking a 69% year-over-year increase and a 12% rise from the previous quarter. The company's net income reached $18.8 billion, a 26% increase year over year, even after incurring a $4.5 billion charge due to new U.S. export restrictions. Despite the strong financial performance, geopolitical pressures and tariff uncertainties raise questions for long-term investors regarding whether...

Read more
News Wave

News Summarized. Time Saved. Bite-sized news briefs for busy people. No fluff, just facts.

CATEGORIES

  • Africa
  • Asia Pacific
  • Australia
  • Business
  • Canada
  • Entertainment
  • Europe
  • India
  • Middle East
  • New Zealand
  • Sports
  • Technology
  • UK
  • USA
  • World

LATEST NEWS STORIES

  • James Cameron Confirms His Next Movie Will Be a Fantasy Epic THE DEVILS
  • UN head ‘appalled’ by reports of deaths of Palestinians in Gaza
  • Microsoft will finally stop bugging Windows users about Edge — but only in Europe
  • About Us
  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookie Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Contact Us

Copyright © 2025 News Wave
News Wave is not responsible for the content of external sites.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • World
  • USA
  • Business
  • Sports
  • Entertainment
  • Technology

Copyright © 2025 News Wave
News Wave is not responsible for the content of external sites.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In