Ecuadoreans are set to vote in a referendum on Sunday that could grant additional powers to their center-right president to address drug-related gang violence and assess his chances for re-election next year.
President Daniel Noboa, a 36-year-old from a prominent banana family, assumed office in November amidst a backdrop of escalating drug-related gang violence, reaching unprecedented levels in recent years.
In January, he declared an “internal armed conflict” and authorized the military to take action against the country’s approximately two dozen gangs, labeled as “terrorist organizations” by the government. This move allowed troops to patrol the streets and prisons, many of which were under gang control.
A couple of weeks ago, Mr. Noboa controversially arrested a convicted Ecuadorean politician seeking refuge at the Mexican Embassy in Quito, drawing criticism for violating international diplomatic norms.
Mr. Noboa justified the embassy raid by stating that the politician, a former vice president, did not deserve protection due to his criminal conviction.
The military deployment and the forceful arrest were intended to showcase Mr. Noboa’s tough stance on crime and impunity, according to political analysts. The referendum will reveal the extent of public support for his aggressive approach.
Despite criticism from human rights groups regarding the government’s harsh tactics, most Ecuadoreans are willing to accept Mr. Noboa’s stringent methods if it means reducing the likelihood of falling victim to crimes.
Glaeldys González, a researcher from the International Crisis Group, noted that Mr. Noboa’s popularity has soared, positioning him as a strong candidate for the upcoming presidential elections.
The referendum consists of 11 questions, with a focus on security in eight of them.
The proposed security measures aim to formalize the increased military presence, enhance prison sentences for organized crime offenses, and permit the extradition of convicted criminals from Ecuador, among other changes.
Ecuador has become a key player in the global drug trade, facing violence from international criminal groups and local gangs. Thousands of Ecuadoreans have fled to the U.S.-Mexico border as a result.
In Guayaquil, a major coastal city, violent clashes erupted after authorities moved to take control of the country’s prisons, marking a critical point in the ongoing security crisis.
Following the declaration of internal conflict, Mr. Noboa’s bold strategy initially reduced violence and instilled a sense of safety. However, the stability was short-lived, with a surge in murders, kidnappings, and extortion in recent months.
The president defended the police raid at the Mexican Embassy as a response to perceived abuses of diplomatic privileges, aligning with his tough stance on violence and corruption.
Despite a slight decline in approval ratings, Mr. Noboa still enjoys significant support from the public. The majority of analysts anticipate a positive response to the security-related questions on the ballot.
The referendum allows Ecuadoreans to vote on each question individually, potentially granting a strong mandate to Mr. Noboa, who is eyeing a second term in the upcoming elections.
The referendum’s outcome would be binding if the security measures are approved, compelling the national assembly to enact them into law within 60 days.
While some view the referendum as a gauge of Mr. Noboa’s popularity, others believe it may not effectively address the country’s security challenges.
Voters, undeterred by recent turmoil, expressed varied opinions on the referendum, with some supporting the proposed changes for a better future, while others criticized the lack of focus on underlying issues like inequality.
Reporting contributed by Thalíe Ponce from Guayaquil, Ecuador, and José María León Cabrera from Quito, Ecuador.
