Vladimir Putin’s initial plan to capture Ukraine quickly failed, but after direct peace talks with Donald Trump, Putin is closer than ever to achieving his goal of establishing a new security architecture in Europe. The US may be open to accommodating Putin’s ambitions, including potentially rolling back sanctions. The situation looks favorable for Putin, and a ceasefire may be on the horizon, possibly by Easter or May 9. Markets in Moscow reacted positively to the news, and hardliners in Russia hailed it as a victory. Putin wants to stop Ukraine from joining the west and is demanding control over certain regions while expecting the west to lift sanctions. The fighting may continue if a deal falls short of Russia’s security requirements. Ukraine and European allies are shocked at Trump’s willingness to accommodate Putin, but any comprehensive deal will require input from Nato members and Ukraine. The delegation Trump appointed to negotiate with Russia does not include his own envoy on the conflict, Keith Kellogg, raising concerns about Ukraine’s core interests not being taken seriously and potentially endorsing Putin’s agenda. Trump’s desire to end the war quickly has caught Kyiv off guard, with Zelenskyy expressing displeasure at being left out of talks and insisting on Ukraine’s involvement in negotiations. Kyiv and its European allies fear that Trump may strike a deal with Putin at Ukraine’s expense, leaving them to deal with the consequences.
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