Climate Change Made an Early Heat Wave in West Africa 10 Times as Likely

In mid-February, a remarkably early, record-breaking heat wave struck the southern part of West Africa. A new analysis by an international team of scientists revealed that climate change made this extreme heat 10 times more likely. The presence of extra greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels also elevated the heat index by about four degrees Celsius.

Anticipating the unusual temperatures, national weather agencies in Ghana and Nigeria issued warnings to the public. During the Africa Cup of Nations soccer tournament in Ivory Coast, players had to take additional breaks to stay hydrated.

What made this heat wave particularly alarming was the early onset of high temperatures, catching many off guard. Wasiu Adeniyi Ibrahim, from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, noted that people had less time to acclimate to the rising temperatures.

The high humidity during the heat wave intensified the danger. Temperatures soared above 40 degrees Celsius, or 104 degrees Fahrenheit, but the added humidity made it feel even hotter. The heat index spiked to around 50 degrees Celsius, or 122 degrees Fahrenheit.

Limited data on the broader impact of this heat wave in West Africa leaves researchers uncertain about the extent of hospitalizations and deaths. Maja Vahlberg, a risk consultant at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, highlighted the vulnerability of many residents due to inadequate access to water, energy, and sanitation during heat waves.

The region’s urban population, half of whom live in informal housing, faces challenges such as lack of air-conditioning and heat-trapping sheet metal homes. Older individuals, those with existing illnesses, and outdoor workers are at higher risk during extreme heat events.

The analysis conducted by World Weather Attribution took longer due to limited weather station data in West Africa. However, last month’s extreme heat serves as an early warning of what may come in the region and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere this summer.