Donald Trump’s tariff deadline looms

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Anyone for taco? As all of you fans of the Unhedged newsletter will know, my colleague Rob Armstrong’s delightful acronym for Trump Always Chickens Out has caused quite a stir in Washington and Wall Street. The July 9 deadline set by Donald Trump to introduce his reciprocal tariffs is almost upon us. Will the US president blink?

Word is that White House officials are seeking to strike narrower bilateral trade deals to avoid the harshest tariffs threatened by Trump.

What we do know is that time has run out on a US-EU trade deal being struck. The two sides are aiming for a less detailed “agreement in principle”, according to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. And it’s a similar story elsewhere. South Korea’s President Lee Jae-myung has noted rather depressingly that “the two sides are not really clear on what they want”.

Want some good news? You can keep up to date with the latest twists and turns with a click of the mouse, on the FT Trump tariff tracker.

In Europe, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will host a two-day Ukraine recovery conference in Rome, more than three years after Russia’s full scale invasion began. The effort will presumably have the blessing of a new local resident: Pope Leo XIV.

Crossing the border from the EU to the UK will be France’s President Emmanuel Macron, arriving in London for a state visit, destined to involved conversations about migrant crossings over the English Channel as well as Anglo-French trade relations.

Also in London, we reach a landmark moment in the Post Office Horizon IT scandal on Tuesday, as the inquiry investigating what became the biggest miscarriage of justice in British legal history publishes volume one of its final report. This document will focus on the human impact of the scandal and the compensation, which some are still waiting to be paid. The report’s publication will be followed by remarks by inquiry chair Sir Wyn Williams, livestreamed on the inquiry’s YouTube channel.

Summer in the northern hemisphere, not to mention the slow return in the US after the July 4 holiday, means a fairly thin run of corporate and economic announcements this week.

The US Federal Reserve will publish the minutes from its last rate-setting meeting on Wednesday, no doubt fuelling an onslaught of social media posts from Trump about the future of Fed chair Jay Powell.

The main UK data point this week will be the monthly GDP update on Friday, which British chancellor Rachel Reeves will be watching as nervously as we are all are about the weather report.

The central bankers will be busy on the speaker circuit over the coming days. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon will also be giving a speech at the Irish foreign ministry in Dublin on Thursday.

Travel will be a theme of the market reports with Delta Air Lines, Heathrow, Norwegian Air and Jet2 revealing latest figures, giving an indication of how many of us are getting away this year and the health of the sector.

One more thing . . . 

Talking of which, I am off for a family break to Cairo, a special trip to mark the end of significant exams for two of my three kids as well as a treat for the other one, an archaeology student.

I am looking forward in particular to visiting the gargantuan new Grand Egyptian Museum, despite the display of the complete Tutankhamun collection uncovered by Howard Carter having its opening postponed due to the Middle East conflict. You can read the FT’s review of this wonder of the modern world here.

The Week Ahead will be back with you next Sunday thanks to my colleagues on the FT newsletter team. And you can email me your thoughts about upcoming events at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, just hit reply. Have a great week.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Bakkavor general meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the company by Greencore. If approved, the deal is expected to complete in early 2026

• Deutsche Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel speaks on “The German economy: navigating cyclical fluctuations and boosting long-term growth” at the Ragnar Nurkse lecture in Tallinn, Estonia

• EU: May retail trade figures

• Germany: May production index

• Japan: Consumption Activity Index

• UK: Halifax July House Price Index

• US: Conference Board employment index

• Results: Ferrexpo Q2 production report, Galp Energia Q2 trading update, Shell Q2 quarterly update

Tuesday

• Just Eat Takeaway extraordinary general meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the company by Prosus. If approved, the deal is expected to complete before the end of the year

• The Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry publishes…