Putin is Stronger Than Ever—Why?

Vladimir Putin has encountered obstacles in his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, after two years of war, the situation seems to be shifting in his favor, and his hold on power remains strong.

At the beginning of the war, Ukrainian resistance forced Russian forces back from Kyiv. Later in 2022, retreats from Kharkiv and Kherson dealt blows to Putin. Additionally, strikes on Russian Black Sea targets have continued, garnering bold headlines for Kyiv.

Despite setbacks, recent developments have favored Putin. U.S.-led sanctions aimed at isolating Russia caused disruptions, but the IMF predicted a 2.6 percent GDP growth in 2024, more than double its previous forecast.

Putin approaches an election on March 15 with confidence, boosted by the deaths of key opposition figures like Alexey Navalny, Western hesitations on aiding Kyiv, and the capture of Avdiivka in the Donetsk oblast.

“Domestically, Vladimir Putin is stronger than before,” stated Ralph Carter, a political science professor at Texas Christian University. “He has rallied public opinion behind his leadership, neutralizing Western sanctions as an attack that he has counteracted.

“He has also eliminated domestic opposition with the demise of Alexei Navalny, his primary critic, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of The Wagner Group. The message to Russians is clear—if it can happen to them, it can happen to you.”

Prigozhin, a fervent critic of Putin’s wartime actions, seized military facilities in Rostov-on-Don and led his Wagner Group of mercenaries towards Moscow. He perished in a plane crash, widely viewed as retribution for challenging Putin’s authority, though the Kremlin denies any involvement.

New Markets, Trump and Congress Deadlock

Putin is shifting focus away from the West, finding new markets for Russian exports in China and India. Despite sanctions reducing Europe’s reliance on Russian energy, Moscow has managed to secure new outlets for its valuable exports.

John Hall, a law professor at Chapman University, California, noted, “Putin’s position appears stronger than it was six months ago. Efforts to isolate Russia economically have not been as successful as anticipated, largely due to India’s willingness to buy Russian oil.

“The war in Ukraine is progressing more favorably for Russia, as they have secured weapon pipelines from North Korea, Iran, and China, while Ukraine faces significant shortages of weapons and manpower.”

With the U.S. Congress deadlocked on further funding for Ukraine, Putin has also benefitted from former President Donald Trump’s rhetoric, supported by some within the GOP, opposing additional military aid for Kyiv.

“Trump’s influence has hindered ongoing support for Ukraine, a policy that only benefits Putin,” added Hall.

NATO Solidarity Questioned

Trump’s criticism of NATO, including encouraging Russia to attack members not meeting a 2 percent spending requirement, has played into Putin’s hands, according to U.S.-Russian relations expert Ken Osgood, a history professor at Colorado School of Mines.

“Undermining NATO solidarity has been a goal of every Russian leader since Joseph Stalin,” Osgood stated. If Trump were to return to the White House and fail to alter the U.S. relationship with NATO, or even if he loses the election, “Putin has already achieved a significant victory by making an American withdrawal from NATO a serious topic of political discussion.”

What About the Long Term?

Jennifer Kibbe, a government professor at Franklin & Marshall College, mentioned that Putin’s position in Ukraine is stronger than it has been in over a year, especially after taking control of Avdiivka and with Ukraine facing challenges due to slowing weapon supplies.

“Unfortunately, in the short to medium term…his grip on power is more consolidated than ever and it’s highly unlikely to unravel,” she added.

However, the swift uprising by Prigozhin last June illustrated how rapidly situations can change in Putin’s Russia.

“Yevgeny Prigozhin managed to seize a major military command center without firing a shot and marched with armed loyalists to within a couple of hundred miles of Moscow—not the kind of state breakdown that could occur in a fully consolidated totalitarian regime,” remarked Stephen Hanson, a government professor at William & Mary University in Virginia.

“It is crucial not to overstate the security of Vladimir Putin’s long-term grip on power.”

Beth Knobel, former Moscow bureau chief for CBS News, noted that Russians are becoming wary of the war, and the significant losses could eventually undermine the president’s standing.

“I believe Putin is in a weaker position now than two years ago,” stated the Fordham University professor. “Russians have suffered greatly due to the conflict in Ukraine.”

The arrests of those publicly mourning Navalny were indicative of this sentiment, in her opinion. “Putin deeply fears the kind of popular uprising witnessed in other nations.”

Randall Stone, director of the Skalny Center for Polish and Central European Studies at the University of Rochester, mentioned that Putin will strive to avoid the street protests that ousted leaders in post-Soviet states like Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Ukraine.

“Putin is very insecure, and the rebellion by the Wagner forces highlighted how fragile his hold on power is. He cannot risk ending the war in Ukraine without a substantial victory, but public aversion to the conflict limits his military efforts,” Stone explained.

Konstantin Sonin, a Russian-born economist at the University of Chicago, stated that Navalny’s death is a “significant short-term win for Putin,” but the president has “painted himself into a corner.”

“I don’t see a way out for him. He cannot halt the war. He cannot cease repression,” he told Newsweek. “It’s not sustainable indefinitely, so I assume this brings him closer to his downfall.”